LSU vs. New Mexico: Prediction and odds for Week 4 College Football

LSU has bounced back spectacularly after a Week 1 defeat to Florida State. The Tigers have now strung together two straight wins at home over Southern and Mississippi State. The game against the Bulldogs was just a teaser of what’s to come in conference play though. Brian Kelly’s team welcomes one more non-conference opponent to Baton Rouge before diving head first into games against Southeastern Conference opposition.

The Bayou Bengals are getting ready to host New Mexico in what’s viewed as one final opportunity to make necessary tuneups before SEC play truly begins. The Lobos come in as a heavy underdog, which means LSU is back on Las Vegas oddsmakers’ good side after covering +2.5 against Mississippi State last weekend.

Here are the official odds for the upcoming match-up between LSU and New Mexico (via FanDuel Sportsbook), as well as some predictions for the contest:

LSU vs. New Mexico odds for Week 4 college football match-up

The spread for Saturday’s Mountain West vs. SEC battle in the bayou opens up at -30.5 in favor of the hosts. LSU is coming off a 15-point win over a fellow conference foe in the Bulldogs, so this isn’t exactly a surprise. Death Valley is no easy place to play, especially for a non-power five opponent. A bet on LSU to cover the spread can currently be placed at -115. If you’re leaning toward the Lobos making it a closer game than anticipated, those odds are set at -105.

Similar to the Tigers’ game against Southern, the moneyline odds for this contest aren’t worth even considering unless you’re banking on an upset victory. LSU (-10000) is the runaway favorite. A $10 bet on New Mexico (+3000) would net you $300 though, so it may be worth a look for one who cheers for chaos.

The total line for this contest is set at 45.5 points (O: -110/U: -110). This is incredibly favorable, especially for someone who believes the Tigers will cover the 30.5-point spread. LSU hung 31 on Mississippi State last weekend, could it find the end zone twice more against the Lobos?

LSU vs. New Mexico prediction for Week 4 college football match-up

As a general rule of thumb when gambling, I try to stay away from spreads this large. The Tigers will likely cover after what they did to the Jaguars a couple of weeks ago. However, as any seasoned LSU fan will know, the Bayou Bengals traditionally don’t blow non-conference opponents out. Maybe things are changing under Kelly, I’ll be staying away regardless.

I stated earlier that there’s absolutely no value in the moneyline and I still believe that. You need to put down at least $100 to earn just $1 back—it’s not worth the money or time.

This leaves the spread. The Tigers are good enough to put seven touchdowns on the board in four quarters against New Mexico on their own. Factor in the reality that Kelly will likely turn to his second and third-string players in the second half, and the Lobos will put some points on the board. I think the over is an easy decision in this one as the hosts try to boost their current standing in the AP Top 25 in any way they can right now.

LSU will look sloppy on occasion as it tries to fiddle around with some final adjustments before SEC play. In the end, though, it’ll be a comfortable win for a talented football team. The Tigers improve to 3-1 on the year and send the Lobos home with some stories to tell about Saturday nights in the real Death Valley.