LSU vs. Tennessee: Prediction and odds for Week 6 College Football

LSU has gotten through the first five games on its schedule at a respectable 4-1. The Tigers’ lone loss is a “good” one in the eyes of the College Football Playoff Committee, especially seeing as it was a one-point defeat to Florida State in Week 1. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly’s team has two quality wins against Mississippi State at home and Auburn on the road.

Now, the Bayou Bengals are preparing to face their toughest test yet. No. 8 Tennessee rolls into town fresh off a bye week. The Volunteers are already battle-tested this season against Pittsburgh and Florida, but it must be said that Tiger Stadium is a different beast … even if the game is being played at 11 a.m. LSU’s entrance into the AP Top 25 Poll over the weekend means that Death Valley will play host to a Top 25 matchup in the coming days.

Here are the official odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) for the upcoming match-up between LSU and Tennessee, as well as some predictions for the contest:

LSU vs. Tennessee odds for Week 6 college football match-up

Similar to last week’s line against Auburn, this is one to watch. I took a peak at the lookahead odds for this game before the Tigers kicked off at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The line at the time was Tennessee -4.5, which I assumed would only get bigger following LSU’s messy performance on the Plains. It turns out that I was sadly mistaken.

The spread for this contest has already changed from its original place of -3.5 in favor of the Volunteers. There was some movement on Monday night, and as of Tuesday evening, Tennessee is favored by less than a field goal. The Volunteers dropping to -2.5 (-120) means that a lot of money in Vegas is being placed on the hosts. A bet on LSU at +2.5 (-102) is a lot riskier given it’s less than a field goal, as well, so keep that in mind when placing a wager on this one.

As the favorite—even if only slightly—there is little value in betting Tennessee moneyline at this moment in time. A bet on the Volunteers can be locked in at -152 right now, whereas it’s +126 on the Bayou Bengals at home. As for the over/under total, oddsmakers see this game being a shootout. The line is set at 63.5 with the under (-105) having slightly more value than the over (-115). This is quite surprising given Vegas has set such a high bar for this contest.

LSU vs. Tennessee prediction for Week 6 college football match-up

While I don’t usually like to give away my game picks ahead of time, I’m very confident in one bet. I think this game will hit under 63.5 total points. LSU’s defense is too good and its offense is too dysfunctional at the moment. Even though Tennessee has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, I simply don’t see the Volunteers being able to draw the Tigers into a shootout.

I feel comfortable predicting that the under will hit, but as far as a winner goes, my mind is still undecided. I like to usually go with my gut for LSU games—I have been wrong twice this season though (Florida State and Auburn). Thus, it’s time to reevaluate my prediction strategy.

The Tigers have all of the tools needed to knock Tennessee off its high horse in an unconventional 11 a.m. game at Tiger Stadium. The questions begin to arise when talking about whether or not Kelly can get them to play a consistent hour of football. LSU’s passing game needs to—and definitely can—find itself this weekend. If the Bayou Bengals can sling the ball around freely and get it into the hands of their talented receivers, the home side has a real shot.