The LSU Tigers carry a lot of hype into the new college season and for a good reason. There is a path from Death Valley to the College Football Playoff.
A year ago, few LSU football fans imagined the Brian Kelly era in Baton Rouge would yield a College Football Playoff (CFP) contender in year two. The former Notre Dame boss migrated South and converted a 6-7 team into SEC West Champions with unlimited potential. Today, the LSU Tigers have a clear path to the CFP, which begins on September 3rd in prime time.
Beat Florida State in Orlando on September 3rd
The LSU Tigers send a strong message with a big win over Florida State in their kickoff game on ABC. The Seminoles are currently ranked No. 14 in ESPN’s preseason poll and expect a massive season from quarterback Jordan Travis. Suffice it to say victory over a top-25 team in prime time will validate LSU’s preseason hype. Currently, ESPN ranks the Tigers No. 4.
Losing to Florida State in Week 1 won’t crush LSU football’s CFP hopes. Fans might recall that last year’s loss to the Seminoles in the Superdome didn’t negatively affect the Tigers’ path to the SEC West title. Moreover, losing an early season game to a ranked opponent is hardly a bowl game death blow. Still, momentum is a consideration, and few can argue the LSU Tigers will ride a ton of it with a 1-0 start to their 2023 season.
We expect LSU to beat Florida State and win ensuing games against Grambling and Mississippi State. Then, at 3-0, thenvTigers’ path to the CFP continues with a potential trap game against a familiar foe.
Win the Battle for the Golden Boot in Week 4
The LSU Tigers’ Week 4 matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks in Baton Rouge is a game they’re expected to win. However, 2023’s Battle for the Golden Boot has ‘trap game’ written all over it. As such, a slip-up against their longtime rival can derail the Tigers’ quest for a CFP appearance.
Conversely, a win over the Razorbacks moves LSU to 2-0 in SEC play, showing they’re not vulnerable to high-pressure rivalry games. Fans not understanding the importance of rivalry game wins must consider how often Auburn has impeded Alabama’s title hopes in recent seasons.
Arkansas enters 2023 unranked in early preseason polls but not far off, primarily because of their quarterback. KJ Jefferson returns to the Razorbacks for what feels like his 9th season. Moreover, matching up against Sam Pittman’s Hogs requires a knock-out, drag-out fight in the trenches. Thus, a win over Arkansas goes a long way in labeling the latest version of the LSU football team ‘battle-tested.’
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Three points won the Battle for the Golden Boot in the last three seasons. However, LSU football has controlled the rivalry game, winning six of the previous seven contests. Last season, the Tigers eked out a 13-10 win over the Razorbacks in Fayetteville. In all fairness, Arkansas was without Jefferson. However, Harold Perkins had a breakout game with three sacks and eight tackles, including three for loss.
We like Perkins to have another massive game against the Razorbacks in 2023, and at 4-0, LSU football will take another next step toward the CFP, The Grove
Beat Ole Miss on the road in Week 5
Ole Miss was 7-0 before running into the LSU football buzzsaw last season. The Tigers rushed for 252 yards, including 121 from Jayden Daniels, on the way to a 45-20 victory. At the time, Ole Miss’s path to the CFP was through Baton Rouge. However, this time, it’s LSU paving the road to the CFP through Oxford, Mississippi.
Beating the Rebels is important for the LSU Tigers because they’re an SEC West foe that figures to field another explosive offense. In addition, LSU football fans cannot overlook Jaxson Dart’s return as Ole Miss quarterback. The Tigers’ defense made life difficult for Dart last season, but the pending junior was admittedly beaten up going into the late October matchup. However, the 2023 version of LSU vs. Ole Miss occurs in late September, giving the Rebels a slight advantage.
Lane Kiffin knows offense, but if there’s a legit criticism of his scheme in Oxford, it’s that his quarterbacks take too many hits. Fans witnessed such with Matt Corral; now, history repeats itself with Dart. One can assume Dart will be a healthier player on September 30; thus, more of a threat to LSU. Conversely, Kiffin exercised some moves to overhaul Ole Miss’s habitually lousy defense, which started with hiring Pete Golding away from Alabama.
Golding doesn’t have a magic wand and will not morph average college defenders into great ones. However, his scheme will help to improve the ‘Land Shark’ defense that remains everything but predatory on Saturdays. LSU football fans must also consider Golding has a game against the Jayden Daniels-led offense under his belt. It was a loss, but we bet the former Crimson Tide defensive coordinator has studied LSU multiple times since Mason Taylor’s walk-off catch.
Speaking of Alabama, the Tide comes next on our list.
Avoid getting rolled by Alabama in November
Many LSU football fans (understandably) assume Brian Kelly will move to 2-0 against Nick Saban since joining the SEC. Indeed, 2022’s overtime win over Alabama injected a ton of confidence in the Tiger fan base and signaled a new era of LSU football. However, we will avoid assuming an SEC West paradigm shift until the Tigers pass the test. Of course, that test is (Brian Kelly) beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
The Crimson Tide have many questions with new coordinators, a new quarterback, and multiple new starters on defense. However, one cannot underestimate Saban’s ability to rinse and repeat. Alabama will field a 2023 roster that is more smash-mouth football centric circa 2008-15, and the LSU Tigers are a big reason why.
The Tide struggled mightily in the trenches during last season’s matchup in Death Valley. The LSU Tigers had Bryce Young on the move all game, thus, throwing off the Tide quarterback’s reads and timing. Also, Alabama’s ground game was anemic for all four quarters resulting in LSU’s ability to control the clock. One can expect Saban to improve both deficiencies in 2023 with an emphasis on the November 4th matchup in Tuscaloosa.
Here’s the thing, LSU doesn’t have to beat Alabama to earn their way to the CFP. We don’t think the Tigers will finish the regular season undefeated; thus, a loss in Tuscaloosa fits into our predictions. However, what LSU football cannot afford is a lopsided contest. But, of course, LSU must finish ahead of the Tide in SEC West play.
We think Alabama will lose two SEC West games in 2023, mainly because of their shift to new offensive and defensive schemes. However, we’re not ready to say Saban’s done winning championships quite yet. We’re also considering how tough it is to play in Tuscaloosa in November. LSU will benefit from a week off before kickoff but expect some injuries and fatigue to challenge the Tigers.
The Crimson Tide might win a close game on their home field, but the LSU Tigers will still look good at 8-1 as they head toward their final three games.
Avenge the 2022 loss to Texas A&M
If there’s a 2022 game that haunts LSU football fans, it’s their 38-22 loss to Texas A&M last November. The game was a reminder that a season’s momentum is lost in one-quarter of play if one team decides to snooze. Credit to the Aggies for showing out in front of their home crowd (in a lost season), but the Tigers undoubtedly slept through half the game. Suffice it to say history cannot repeat itself in 2023.
The LSU Tigers will square off with Texas A&M in their typical rivalry week content on November 26. Thankfully, the 2023 clash will commence in Death Valley. As such, we expect a rowdy crowd of purple and gold on display for an anticipated primetime television slot. Moreover, we think the matchup will have massive implications for the SEC Championship Game.
Call us ‘optimists,’ but we expect the LSU Tigers to kick off against Texas A&M at 10-1 and need a win to secure their place in the SEC title game. Losing will shift the bid to Crimson Tide, who (we think) edge the Tigers in Week 9. However, LSU football controls its destiny during their final regular season game, and Jimbo Fisher will attempt to play spoiler.
If Jayden Daniels and Harold Perkins are in the Heisman Trophy picture, it is because they finished the regular season strong. We like both to have a big night against Texas A&M and lead the Tigers to victory, thus, securing a second-consecutive trip to the SEC Championship Game. As for Jimbo, we expect the Aggies to play better than 2022’s version (2-6 in SEC play) but continue to avoid meeting their hype. As a result, Jimbo’s last game as Texas A&M head coach is played in Death Valley.
How about them Aggies?
Take down Goliath in the SEC title game
The Georgia Bulldogs embarrassed LSU football in the 2022 SEC Championship Game, cruising to a 50-30 win. The Tigers made the box score interesting after Garrett Nussmeier took over the offense. However, one can argue Nussmeier’s numbers were equally the result of Georgia calling off the dogs; no pun intended. Regardless, few LSU football fans can shake the image of Jalen Carter hoisting Jayden Daniels in the air like a living trophy.
We expect the LSU Tigers to get another shot at Georgia under similar circumstances in 2023. However, Brian Kelly’s team will pose a more significant threat to Kirby Smart’s Dawgs than the year prior. LSU has the benefit of continuity on both sides of the football this season. We also anticipate Harold Perkins’ evolution into a game-changing defensive player.
Conversely, Georgia graduated many veteran players to the NFL, including their signal-caller and best defensive lineman. But, of course, it’s foolish to underestimate Smart’s ability to reload, as the Dawgs are full of five-star athletes. However, if there’s one thing we’ve learned from Alabama’s dynasty with Nick Saban, it’s tough to win three championships in a row.
Ultimately, the Tigers need elite quarterback play to dethrone the defending National Champions. Jayden Daniels or Nussmeier must play at a Heisman level for LSU to win the SEC. The odds are murky but far from impossible.
Winning the SEC title game catapults LSU football to their first CFP appearance since 2019. Some will argue the eventual SEC champion cannot afford more than one loss to finish in the CFP’s top four rankings. We disagree for two reasons. One, it’s unlikely the 2023 SEC champion has more than one loss. We haven’t seen that since the LSU Tigers (10-2) beat Tennessee in the 2007 SEC Championship Game. Second, we have a hunch there will be no undefeated power five teams this season. As a result, ironically, a two-loss conference champion will sneak into the CFP in its final year of the four-team format.
We’re not ready to boldly go into ‘count on the LSU Tigers to win the SEC’ mode quite yet, if at all. However, 2022 taught us that Kelly has his teams much further along than anticipated. Few expected an SEC West title in Kelly’s first year. Thus, we wonder what season two will bring.
LSU’s path is clear, but will the Tigers walk it?