LSU Football and Arkansas will play for the last time until 2025 on Saturday. It’s a game that we think the Tigers will win for three main reasons.
LSU Football has College Football Playoff aspirations entering their second SEC game of the season. The Tigers are in the process of overcoming their embarrassing Week 1 loss to Florida State. Blowout wins over Grambling and Mississippi State have the Tigers in the CFP background conversations, but they’re not quite back at the table.
Indeed, a convincing win over Arkansas this evening will change that.
On the other sideline, the Razorbacks are desperately in need of shaking the stench of an ugly loss to BYU in Week 3. We give the Cougars a ton of respect, but they don’t possess the same level of talent as Arkansas. As such, the Hogs dropping a home game to the second-best team from Utah is a step in the wrong direction.
Sam Pittman’s squad needs an upset win on the road in Week 4 to show that last week was an exception. However, Arkansas will lose to LSU Football because of these three dynamics.
The Arkansas offense is extremely disjointed
Perhaps the biggest revelation from re-watching the Razorbacks’ Week 3 loss to BYU is that KJ Jefferson does not look like himself.
Jefferson completed 24 of 35 passes for 247 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. What stood out more is that the dynamic Arkansas quarterback carried the ball 13 times for only 21 yards. Indeed, the Hogs’ offense is terrible right now.
Much is being said about Arkansas switching from Kendal Briles to Dan Enos as offensive coordinator. Enos appears to be enforcing a scheme that limits Jefferson from doing what he does best: using his legs to stretch the field. For all we know, the plan in Fayetteville remains converting Jefferson into more of a pocket passer.
The senior quarterback is more effective operating outside the pocket, but has taken a lot of hits in his collegiate career.
Simultaneously, the Razorbacks offensively line is an uncharacteristic sieve. The Hogs gave up three sacks, six tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles in Week 3. Penalties have also been a problem for Pittman’s big boys.
Leaving Jefferson in the pocket, behind an undisciplined, permeable offensive line, is to the LSU defense’s advantage.
The Arkansas defense surrenders chunk plays
LSU Football usually encounters Arkansas teams boosted by stout defenses. We experienced a tough Hogs’ defense in Fayetteville last year, a unit that limited the Tigers’ offense to 86 passing yards and 13 points. However, the 2023 Arkansas defense does not appear as stingy as its predecessor.
BYU generated 38 points in Fayetteville, primarily from big plays. The Cougars’ first touchdown was a 37-yard pass. BYU scored another on a 45-yard run, and then, a 20-yard touchdown pass brought them within seven points of tying the game. Led by transfer quarterback Kedon Slovis, the Cougars offense consistently got beyond the Arkansas secondary.
If the Hogs are as susceptible to surrendering big plays in 2023, LSU Football will scorch the earth tonight.
On paper, the Arkansas defense looks better than last year. The Hogs have surrendered an average of 19 points per game through college football’s first three weeks. Such is an improvement on their 2022 metric, but one must consider who Arkansas has played. Indeed, crushing Western Carolina and Kent State isn’t impressive for an SEC program not named ‘Vanderbilt.’
Expect another big game out of Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, and every other big-play LSU Football player that touches the field.
LSU Football is playing at home
It’s Saturday night in Death Valley, and LSU Football will benefit from the most significant home-field advantage in college football.
As we know, Tiger Stadium is among the loudest venues in North America, especially when the sun goes down. A 6 PM CT kick means fans have several hours of tailgating under their belts before filling the bowl. As such, the raucous, booze-fueled crowd will make the night extremely difficult for the Razorbacks.
We think a few false start penalties and panic time-outs are in store for Arkansas.
The 2022 Battle for the Boot was an 11 AM CT kick-off in Fayetteville. Nobody likes late-morning games, especially the 2022 LSU Football offense. Conversely, the 2023 Tigers looked pretty darn good at 11 AM in Starkville last week.
Nevertheless, we’re getting the final yearly installment of LSU vs. Arkansas under the lights. Changes to the SEC scheduling format include breaking up the Battle for the Boot to an every-other season affair. Thus, tonight is the Hogs’ last game in Death Valley until the 2027 season.
We expect Arkansas fans in 2027 to talk about how loud their night in Baton Rouge was back in 2023.
LSU Football will ride the momentum from the Mississippi State win, soak in the electrifying home crowd, and beat Arkansas by double-digit points.