Are you paying close attention? FanDuel Sportsbook released its updated win total projections for every Power Four conference. While every team competing at that level may have a bone or two to pick with the bookmakers of the world, where LSU finds itself in the middle of the pack of the SEC should have Lane Kiffin feeling a certain way. Did he really make the right call by leaving Ole Miss?
Without further ado, here is every SEC team's projected win totals for 2026, sorted alphabetically.
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 8.5
- Arkansas Razorbacks: 4.5
- Auburn Tigers: 6.5
- Florida Gators: 6.5
- Georgia Bulldogs: 9.5
- Kentucky Wildcats: 5.5
- LSU Tigers: 8.5
- Mississippi State Bulldogs: 4.5
- Missouri Tigers: 6.5
- Oklahoma Sooners: 7.5
- Ole Miss Rebels: 7.5
- South Carolina Gamecocks: 5.5
- Tennessee Volunteers: 6.5
- Texas Longhorns: 9.5
- Texas A&M Aggies: 8.5
- Vanderbilt Commodores: 6.5
Should you need a visual representation of how the SEC hierarchy looks, Josh Pate has you covered!
🚨PATE STATE ALERT🚨
— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) March 13, 2026
SEC win totals released by @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/riVlTBpwlg
FanDuel has LSU tied for the third-best SEC win totals with Alabama and Texas A&M at 8.5. While this is one win better than Ole Miss at 7.5, keep in mind that FanDuel only has two projected playoff teams out of the SEC with Georgia and Texas at 9.5 wins. Frankly, none of this makes any sense. The SEC got five teams in the playoff last year, averaging four annually in the two years of the 12-team playoff.
Let's unpack what this means in regards to LSU's upcoming schedule and go from there just a bit...
Lane Kiffin may not have upgraded right away leaving Ole Miss for LSU
For those who need a refresher, here is what LSU's college football schedule looks like for 2026.
Date | Opponent | Location |
|---|---|---|
Sept. 5 | Clemson Tigers | Baton Rouge, LA |
Sept. 12 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | Baton Rouge, LA |
Sept. 19 | at Ole Miss Rebels | Oxford, MS |
Sept. 26 | Texas A&M Aggies | Baton Rouge, LA |
Oct. 3 | McNeese Cowboys | Baton Rouge, LA |
Oct. 10 | at Kentucky Wildcats | Lexington, KY |
Oct. 17 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | Baton Rouge, LA |
Oct. 24 | at Auburn Tigers | Auburn, AL |
Oct. 31 | BYE | |
Nov. 7 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Baton Rouge, LA |
Nov. 14 | Texas Longhorns | Baton Rouge, LA |
Nov. 21 | at Tennessee Volunteers | Knoxville, TN |
Nov. 28 | at Arkansas Razorbacks | Fayetteville, AR |
Dec. 5 | SEC Championship | Atlanta, GA |
While it is not the easiest schedule in the sport, there are other college teams with much harder ones.
At this time, let's break the upcoming LSU football schedule down into four groupings. Let's start with the Tigers' three non-conference games, their three hardest games in SEC play, their three easiest, and the three that could go either way in the conference. In the non-conference, LSU hosts Clemson, Louisiana Tech, and McNeese. Because the beat Clemson on the road last year, let's go for a sweep!
While LSU could go 3-0 in the non-conference without too much effort, things could be challenging in these three conference games: At Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Texas. The Ole Miss road date is LSU's SEC opener. Kiffin will be returning to Oxford. Emotions will be high. That game should be fascinating. Texas A&M at home the week after is a brutal draw. Hosting Texas on senior night could be an issue...
As far as the three easiest SEC games are concerned, LSU should cake walk to victory over Kentucky in Lexington, home vs. Mississippi State, and at Arkansas to end the season. A loss to any of them would be so problematic for LSU's chances of making the College Football Playoff. As for the other three SEC games at Auburn, home vs. Alabama, and at Tennessee, it is where the year will be defined.
So follow along with this... If LSU goes 3-0 in the non-conference, 3-0 vs. the SEC bottom-feeders on its schedule, 2-1 vs. its SEC mid-tiers, and 1-2 vs. the SEC behemoths, LSU will be right on the doorstep of being a playoff team at 9-3. That would edge out the projected win/loss total of 8.5. If LSU is one win better than potentially expected, the Tigers will be 10-2 and should be playoff-bound.
Overall, the gap between where Ole Miss was and where LSU is going is maybe a win or so different. Kiffin left Ole Miss for better resources and more fertile recruiting territory in-state. After all, LSU is the only Power Four school in Louisiana, whereas Ole Miss has to compete with Mississippi State for the best high school players Mississippi has to offer. It may be apples to oranges, but we shall see...
Ultimately, Kiffin has chosen to bet on himself to take LSU back to the promised land. Based on what he did previously at Ole Miss and Florida Atlantic before that, he seems to be more than capable of that at his new job. Right now, the oddsmakers are dubious that he has the roster to overcome a moderately challenging SEC schedule in year one to potentially make the College Football Playoff.
The fact Ole Miss is only one game off their trail suggests that the middle of the SEC will be feisty.