Evaluating ESPN's win probabilities for every LSU Football game in 2024

Week Seven - At Arkansas - 65%

The Tigers may head to Fayetteville and face a head coach that isn't Sam Pittman as he could be fired by this point in the season. Coming off of the Ole Miss game, this could be a trap game especially if LSU wins but, if the Tigers are going to be a playoff team they'll need to win this one.

Week Eight - At Texas A&M - 47.1%

The first projected loss for the Tigers comes as a surprise in many aspects. The matchups with the Aggies are always tough but, in year one with Mike Elko at the helm, it’s hard to see Texas A&M standing out with all their turnover. On paper, the Tigers are more talented and once these teams hit the field the projection should shift.

Week Nine Vs Alabama - 36.7%

In the first year post Nick Saban the Tide are projected to come into Tiger Stadium and walk all over the Tigers. Alabama is still a pre-season darling but, given the transfer losses you have to wonder how this new group will gel. The last time this game was played in Tiger Stadium, Brian Kelly won in overtime with a team that wasn't exactly built in his mold.

Week Ten - At Florida - 53.4%

Winning in the swamp is incredibly tough but, LSU being the favorite shows what expectations are for Billy Napier’s squad. The biggest benefit for the Tigers is that Florida may not be playing for anything while the fans may be rooting for losses to get a Billy Napier out of town.

Week 11 - Vs Vanderbilt - 86.2%

This is another game where it’s surprising LSU isn’t an even bigger favorite. The Tigers should be able to ease up on some of the starters as the season winds down. Clark Lea may not be the coach of the Commodores at this point in the season but, if he is it's because the transfer quarterbacks have played well.

Week 12 - Vs Oklahoma - 47.6%

Entering the final week of the season, this game against Oklahoma would likely have massive implications on who makes the playoffs. The Sooners will be a tough out but, it’s hard to believe LSU would lose two games at home especially with the potential high stakes in this matchup.

The Tigers will miss the Playoffs at 9-3

The Tigers are projected by ESPN's metrics to finish the season 9-3 which would put the Tigers in the top twenty but, outside of playoff contention. If you look at two close projected losses against Texas A&M and Oklahoma, you can easily see the Tigers winning at least one or both of those games. Should the Tigers finish the season 10-2 with wins over USC and either Ole Miss or Alabama, then the Tigers should end up in the College Football Playoff.

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