After three years in Baton Rouge, the focus coming into the year was Brian Kelly’s inability to win a season opener. The former Notre Dame head coach finally slayed that dragon with a 17-10 road win over Clemson. However, another alarming stat has emerged after No. 10 LSU fell to 5-2 on Saturday with a 31-24 loss to No. 17 Vanderbilt in Nashville.
Kelly has yet to lead the Tigers to the College Football Playoff, and one of the big reasons has been his inability to win away from Death Valley. With the loss to the Commodores, Kelly is now 11-11 away from Baton Rouge throughout his tenure, and 7-7 in true road games.
Kelly’s buyout could save him despite abysmal record away from Baton Rouge
Both of LSU’s losses have come on the road this season, and they will likely keep the Tigers out of the 2025 12-team CFP. Kelly is tied to the program through 2031 and has a buyout north of $50 million if he were to be fired this season, so LSU may not be quick to make a move, but after Penn State moved on from James Franklin with a similar contract situation, the thought will be hard to keep out of the administration's collective mind.
Possibly the worst part of Kelly’s road failures is that he’s had a reliable quarterback who should be able to handle those situations. LSU’s defensive struggles wasted Jayden Daniels’ 2023 Heisman Trophy campaign, a season that featured three losses away from home, two in SEC road games, and one in a neutral site.
Now, with Garrett Nussmeier in his redshirt senior season, and a revamped defense playing at a high level for much of the year, LSU is 1-2 on the road. Nussmeier has dealt with injuries that have zapped him of his velocity for much of the season. Still, the veteran QB played well in Nashville, well enough to win with 225 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Yet, Diego Pavia torched LSU’s blitz-heavy defense. Second-year defensive coordinator Blake Baker, who was Step 1 of Kelly’s solution to his program’s defensive woes, plays an aggressive scheme and relies on man coverage, which has left his unit susceptible to mobile quarterbacks in both its losses. Pavia ran for 86 yards and two touchdowns on Saturday while Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss racked up 71 yards on the ground.
After losing 2025 five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood to Michigan late in last year’s recruiting cycle, LSU doesn’t have a clear answer waiting in the wings to replace Nussmeier next season. So, while it would be costly, this offseason could present an opportunity for a clean break between Kelly and the Tigers.