LSU vs Ole Miss: Featured Matchups

The #24 LSU Tigers, 6-2, 2-2, return to Tiger Stadium this Saturday night to take on the #3 Ole Miss Rebels. The game kicks off at 6:15 CT on ESPN. The Rebels come into the game with a record of 7-0, 4-0. As mentioned earlier this week, the Tigers can ruin the Rebels’ season with a win, and in the process, shake up the SEC West and the playoff picture.

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In this week’s featured matchups, Death Valley Voice takes a look at (1) the LSU defense vs. the Ole Miss offense, and (2) the LSU offense vs the Ole Miss defense. Essentially, we’re looking at strength vs. strength matchups, in that the LSU defense is strong in pass defense, and Ole Miss’s strength on offense is its passing game. On offense, LSU has a strong running game, and Ole Miss has been quite stout against the run.

For more detail on Ole Miss, check out our Q&A with Ole Hotty Toddy.

LSU defense vs Ole Miss offense

First some stats:

LSU allows 319 yards per game, which is good for 14th nationally, and 4th in the SEC. Of that total, 156.3 yards come via passing (4th nationally, 1st SEC), and 162.5 yards via rushing (69th nationally, and 10th SEC). The Tigers allow 17 points per game (8th nationally, 3rd SEC).

Ole Miss averages 433 yards per game on offense, good for 51st nationally, and 8th SEC. Of that total, 282 yards come via passing (33rd nationally, 3rd SEC), and 151.3 yards via rushing (84th nationally, 10th SEC). The Rebels average 35.4 points per game (30th nationally, 8th SEC).

On paper, this would appear to be good news for LSU. The Tigers have one of the best secondaries in the nation, which certainly bodes well in defending against a strong passing team. Additionally, Ole Miss is not a strong running team, something that has given LSU problems all year, although run defense for LSU has improved the last two weeks in wins against Florida and Kentucky.

So, something has to give…

The key for LSU is keeping Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace in check. The Tigers will have to get consistent pressure up front to throw off his timing, and to hopefully fluster and frustrate him. Wallace in his previous two games against LSU has thrown for 300+ yards in both games. Last year, in Ole Miss’s win over the Tigers, he threw for 346 yards on 30-of-39, and no touchdowns. He also rushed for 54 yards on 11 attempts.

Holding Wallace to under 250 yards is crucial. The LSU secondary will have to play its best game of the year, and will need a lot of help from the front seven. Look for Kendell Beckwith and Jamal Adams to have big games for the Tigers.

LSU offense vs Ole Miss defense

The stats:

LSU averages 415 yards per game on offense, which is good 65th nationally, 10th SEC. Of that total, 194.4 yards come via passing (98th nationally, 11th SEC), and 220.9 yards rushing (28th nationally, 3rd SEC). The Tigers average 35.6 points per game (28th nationally, 7th SEC).

Ole Miss on defense holds their opponents to 291 yards per game (8th nationally, 2nd SEC). Of that total, 193.4 yards come via passing (20th nationally, 4th SEC), and 97.1 yards rushing (6th nationally, 2nd SEC). The Rebels allow 10.6 points per game (best in the nation).

This by far is the best defense LSU will have faced all season. The keys are to establish the run, and do just enough in the passing game to keep them honest. And, do not turn the ball over. The Rebels defense has 20 takeaways this year.

The Tigers will need to gain close to their average rushing yardage in order to have a chance to win.

Again, something has to give…

Anthony Jennings needs to play a smart game at quarterback. The good news is he rarely turns the ball over. The Tigers must establish some semblance of a running game. The past two weeks, Leonard Fournette and Terrence Magee have led the Tigers’ rushing attack, and one of the two will have to step up against the Rebels (or quite frankly, whoever has the hot hand, and that includes Kenny Hilliard and Darrel Williams).

That said, the Tigers can’t be one-dimensional. Jennings has had difficulty in the short passing game during the year, and this will be needed if LSU is to establish the run. It will be difficult to complete deep passes against the Ole Miss secondary. Perhaps take a page out of the Ole Miss playbook, and dink and dunk all the way downfield.

The Likely Result

This is the biggest game of the year for LSU. Tiger Stadium will be rocking. Special teams play and turnovers will be the deciding factors, given the virtual stalemate when matching the teams up strength vs. strength. I like the Tigers’ chances if they can force turnovers and convert them into scores (short fields would be beneficial), and if they can come up with one or two big plays on special teams.

Look for LSU to come away with the upset win, along the lines of 17-14, or 20-17.