LSU Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies: Keys To Victory

The LSU Tigers (7-4, 3-4) travel to College Station, TX this Thursday to take on the Texas A&M Aggies (7-4, 3-4) at Kyle Field for the final regular season game for 2014. The game kicks off at 6:30 pm CT on ESPN.

LSU is currently a 2.5 point favorite.

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This is the start of a new tradition for both teams. In past years, LSU played Arkansas over the Thanksgiving weekend; either the Friday or Saturday after Thanksgiving, but not on Thanksgiving Day.

Texas A&M’s traditional Thanksgiving Day opponent was Texas, dating back to the days of the now-defunct Southwest Conference.

Relative to this new Thanksgiving rivalry, which some might chalk up to something contrived by ESPN, at least there is a history between LSU and Texas A&M. The teams have played 52 times over the years, beginning in 1899, with LSU holding a 29-20-3 advantage. The Tigers and Aggies played annually from 1942-49, 1955-75, and 1986-95.

LSU is 2-0 against Texas A&M since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012.

Both teams enter the contest looking to end the year on a positive note. LSU is looking to snap a two-game losing streak, and Texas A&M has lost four of its past six games, after starting the year 5-0.

LSU Offense

Looking at LSU’s keys to victory, the Tigers will need to re-establish its running game, which suffered a season-low 36 yards on the ground in the 17-0 shutout loss to Arkansas. The ground attack is still LSU’s strength, as the Tigers are averaging 204.5 rushing yards per game (35th nationally, 6th SEC). The passing game, of course, still leaves much to be desired, as the Tigers are averaging only 169.1 yards per game (113th nationally, 13th SEC). LSU averages 28 points per game (74th nationally, 13th SEC), and 374 yards per game (89th nationally, 11th SEC).

In what should be good news for LSU, Texas A&M is not a strong defensive team that is near the bottom of the SEC in most defensive categories. The Tigers should be able to take advantage of this. The Aggies allow 27.7 points per game (78th nationally, 11th SEC), and a whopping 445 yards per game (102nd nationally, 14th SEC). That translates to 208.9 rushing yards per game (107th nationally, 13th SEC), and 236.3 passing yards per game (82nd nationally, 12th SEC).

Look for LSU to have success running the football, with the expectation that leading rusher Leonard Fournette will have more than the five touches he had against Arkansas; and dare it be said, either Anthony Jennings or Brandon Harris can have success throwing the football against the A&M defense. Plus, the LSU receiving corps will be looking to redeem itself after poor showings the past two games.

LSU Defense

Looking at LSU’s keys to victory on defense, it will be strength against strength. LSU is near the top nationally in most defensive categories, and Texas A&M near the top nationally in most offensive categories. The outlier here for A&M is it does not have a strong running game. The Aggies rely on the passing game, and as Tiger fans know, pass defense is the one area where LSU excels this year.

Texas A&M on offense averages 36 points per game (23rd nationally, 3rd SEC), and 469 yards per game (26th nationally, 4th SEC). Yardage translates to 321.2 passing yards per game (10th nationally, 1st SEC), and 148.2 rushing yards per game (85th nationally, 12th SEC).

Look for LSU to have success in stopping A&M’s rushing attack, and forcing them to be one-dimensional. On defense, LSU allows 16.4 points per game (6th nationally, 3rd SEC), and 313 yards per game (11th nationally, 3rd SEC). The yardage allowed translates to 164 passing yards per game (5th nationally, 1st SEC), and 148.9 rushing yards per game (49th nationally, 8th SEC).

For the Aggies at quarterback, both Kenny Hill and Kyle Allen have had successful years, and the passing attack features three receivers (Josh Reynolds, Malcolme Kennedy, and Speedy Noil) with 40 or more receptions. The Aggies’ leading rusher is Tra Carson with 431 yards on the year.

The LSU defense played well enough to win in the back-to-back losses to Alabama and Arkansas. The Tiger defense will come into this game with a chip on its shoulder, and that, combined with consecutive wins over the Aggies the past two years (there’s no Johnny Manziel to contend with this time around) will be the difference in the game.

Prediction

A bounce-back game for LSU, with the Tigers prevailing on the order of 24-17.