LSU has strung together a nice little two-game winning streak as it rebounds from its opening week loss to Florida State. The Tigers have dispatched both Southern and Mississippi State rather easily, winning each game comfortably in the end. Brian Kelly and Co. will now look to make it three in a row before getting into the thick of things on their schedule.
Standing in the Bayou Bengals’ way of a 3-1 record is a visiting New Mexico team. The Lobos are coming into Death Valley for the first time looking to make a statement. Unfortunately for them, oddsmakers don’t see that happening. Let’s dive into the lines for LSU vs. New Mexico and go over a couple of best bets for Saturday’s game:
Best LSU football bets for the Week 4 match-up against New Mexico
The Tigers came into their Week 3 match-up against the Bulldogs as a home underdog. A 15-point victory on the night ensured that Vegas was not going to make that mistake again any time soon, especially not against a non-power five school such as New Mexico. It goes without saying that any impressive win last weekend has LSU sitting pretty as a massive favorite.
Here are the odds via FanDuel Sportsbook:
Spread: LSU -31.5 (-104) | New Mexico +31.5 (-118)
Moneyline: LSU (-20000) | LSU (+3500)
O/U: 44.5 (O: -120) | (U: -102)
The unfortunate reality of games of this nature is there aren’t a ton of odds made available to the public. Whereas there were odds galore against Mississippi State last weekend, the New Mexico game sees very few opportunities to bet on player props. Regardless, it’s those few player props we’re going to be looking toward this week to make our money. After all, they did see us go three-for-three last weekend.
Whereas we stayed away from the gamelines last week, I’m going to go for one in this contest. Every LSU game this season has resulted in a total score of over 45 points, which is the line for Saturday’s game against New Mexico. The Lobos have failed to hit this mark twice, but both times they played bad teams in UTEP and Maine. The Tigers’ offense has what it takes to score 45 points on New Mexico by itself, but I think they’ll get some help.
Life’s too short to bet the under.
Kelly revealed in his press conference earlier in the week that Mike Denbrock’s offense was going to focus on getting better in the passing game. This means LSU will be slinging the ball around left and right on Saturday to get the receivers more involved.
Jayden Daniels’ passing yards prop is tempting (O/U 188.5), but I’m not sure how long he’ll be in the game. Therefore, look for him to throw at least two touchdowns and cash the over 1.5 at -130 odds.
On that note, Malik Nabers has emerged as an early season favorite of Daniels’. Kayshon Boutte will miss this one due to the birth of his child, which suddenly elevates Nabers to the No. 1 spot. He’s the go-to receiver anyway, expect him to have a big day on Saturday. Nabers is currently -114 to have over 49.5 receiving yards. Given the fact that Kelly has hinted at LSU throwing the ball around a lot, I love the over.
There are those out there who will want a bit of plus juice though.
It’s difficult to find odds like these when going with the Tigers against non-power five opposition. However, I’ve managed to dig up an opportunity. Daniels under 0.5 rushing touchdowns (+116) is a very interesting line. I’m still on the fence personally, it’s intriguing nonetheless.
I don’t see this as a game where the Tigers will need their QB to scramble often. Kelly will likely instruct him to remain in the pocket for as long as possible to improve his passing mechanics. Therefore, Daniels failing to find the end zone with his feet is plausible.
In conclusion, our best bets for Week 4 are: over 44.5 (-120), Daniels over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130) and Nabers over 49.5 receiving yards (-114). If you’re feeling bold, go ahead and throw Daniels under 0.5 rushing touchdowns to your bet slip.