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Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 13

By Reed Wallach

Nov 4, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) passing against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 4, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) passing against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports /
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It’s the last call for Jayden Daniels’ Heisman Trophy case. 

The favorite to win the Heisman will take the field at home for LSU as he tries to bolster his case against Texas A&M. The Aggies have a stout defense, but Daniels hasn’t been stopped to date, and with the stakes low, can we expect more points from the Tigers offense?

Here’s my betting preview for this SEC regular-season finale.

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Texas A&M vs. LSU odds, spread and total

Odds via Bet365

Moneyline
Texas A&M +340
LSU -430

LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Trends

  • LSU is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Texas A&M 4-5-1 ATS this season
  • Texas A&M is 0-2-1 ATS as an underdog
  • LSU is 5-1 ATS at home
  • LSU is 9-1 to the OVER
  • Texas A&M has gone over in two of three games as an underdog

Texas A&M vs. LSU How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, November 25
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Tiger Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Texas A&M Record: 7-4
  • LSU Record: 8-3

Don’t miss our betting deep dive on Michigan vs. Ohio State, which you can find

Texas A&M vs. LSU Key Players to Watch

Texas A&M

Jaylen Henderson: Henderson has started the last two games for Max Johnson, who has been out with a rib injury, and is still day-to-day. Henderson has led the team to two straight wins but against far worse competition. Can the offense keep up against an LSU offense that is as potent as any offense in the country, but has one of the worst defenses in the nation, 129th in EPA/Play.

LSU

Jayden Daniels: I’m not sure Daniels can top his eight total touchdowns against Georgia State, but if he does against Texas A&M he will only further solidify his Heisman Trophy campaign. The Texas A&M defense has been vulnerable against the pass, 125th in explosive pass defense, and Daniels hasn’t been stopped yet, posting more than 4,500 total yards with 46 total touchdowns.

Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

LSU didn’t win the big games necessary to compete for the SEC title again this season, but it hasn’t been because of the offense, anchored by the best quarterback in the nation this season. The defense has been unable to stop anybody, but the offense has been dynamite.

As I noted above, LSU has gone over in nine of 10 games this season and I see no reason why a game without many stakes except for Daniels to pad his stats shouldn’t fly over the total.

LSU allowed Georgia State to move the ball in the first half before the Sun Belt group ran out of gas, and this is a good opportunity for an A&M offense to cook against an LSU defense that is outside the top 100 in stats such as yards per carry and explosive play rate. Further, when the Aggies get in close, expect touchdowns as LSU is 120th in red zone touchdown percentage allowed (73%).

Texas A&M has been torched over the top by elite passing games with talented wide receivers, see Miami, Alabama, and Ole Miss, and I believe this will be a similar game script.

Go over in the season finale as Daniels looks to put the finishing touches on his Heisman Trophy candidacy.

Reed's pick: Over 66.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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